Turkish Market Analysis - Werner Framework Crisis Monitor

🚨

CRITICAL: Second Parameter Triggered!

FX Reserves dropped to $75.61B - now $9.39B BELOW the $85B trigger threshold (-11.0%). Werner Framework confidence upgraded to 85%.

2/6 Parameters Triggered Position Size: 15-20% Crisis Acceleration Phase

Confidence Level

📊

85%

Crisis Acceleration Phase

Parameters Triggered

⚠️

2/6

USD/TRY + FX Reserves TRIGGERED

UPGRADED from 1/6

Recommended Position Size

🎯

15-20%

Crisis Acceleration

UPGRADED from 5-10%

Status

🔔

Critical 2

Warning 3

Safe 1

⚠️ Alerts ON

📈 Key Indicators

USD/TRY

Updated: Dec 7, 2025

📈

42.58

TRIGGERED ≥41.5

• Trigger: ≥41.5 TRY TRIGGERED

• Above threshold: +2.6%

• 52-week high: 42.66

📊 Investing.com - Updated Dec 7, 2025 →

FX Reserves

Updated: Nov 28, 2025

💰

$75.61B

TRIGGERED ≤$85B

• Trigger: ≤$85B TRIGGERED

• Below threshold: -$9.39B (-11.0%)

• Lowest since June 27, 2025

📊 Trading Economics - Updated Nov 28, 2025 →

10Y Bond Yield

Updated: Dec 5, 2025

📊

28.68%

Below Trigger ≥30%

• Trigger: ≥30% SAFE

• Below threshold: -1.32% (4.6%)

• Improved from 29.68% (Oct 31)

📊 Investing.com - Updated Dec 5, 2025 →

Credit Growth

Updated: Jul 2025

📊

28.0%

Near Trigger ≤27%

• Trigger: ≤27% WARNING

• Above threshold: +1.0% (3.7%)

• Slowing as TCMB tightens

📊 Trading Economics - Updated Jul 2025 →

Real Estate Growth

Updated: Sep 2025

🏠

19.2%

Below ≤30% threshold

• Trigger: ≤30% WARNING

• Already below threshold

• Housing market cooling

📊 Trading Economics - Updated Sep 2025 →

Bank CDS

Updated: Aug 2025

🏦

267 bps

Below Trigger ≥280 bps

• Trigger: ≥280 bps SAFE

• Below threshold: -13 bps (4.6%)

• Banking sector stable

📊 Trading Economics - Updated Aug 2025 →

🔔 Stay Informed

Get notified when a third Werner parameter triggers (95% confidence upgrade)

You'll receive an email when the third parameter triggers, upgrading confidence from 85% to 95% and position size from 15-20% to 20-25%. We respect your privacy and never share your email.

🎯 Trading Strategy - 85% Confidence

Position Sizing: 15-20% (UPGRADED from 5-10%)

Crisis Acceleration Phase - With 2/6 Werner parameters triggered, recommended position increased

TUR $30 PUT Feb 2026

Allocation: 5-8%

Premium: ~$2.50

Breakeven: $27.50

ROI Target: +300%

TUR $25 PUT May 2026

Allocation: 3-5%

Premium: ~$1.80

Breakeven: $23.20

ROI Target: +400%

TUR ETF Short

Allocation: 3-7%

Entry: ~$34.50

Stop Loss: 5-8%

Target: -45%

⚠️ Risk Management: Maximum total position: 25% of portfolio. PUT options risk limited to premium paid. Diversify across multiple expiration dates. Monitor for third parameter trigger (would upgrade to 95% confidence and 20-25% position).

⏰ Werner Crisis Timeline

✓

Phase 1: Credit Contraction

COMPLETED

Central bank tightening began constraining credit creation. Asset bubbles started to deflate. First parameter triggered (USD/TRY ≥41.5).

Timeline: October 2025

Phase 2: Asset Price Collapse

ACTIVE NOW

FX reserves collapsed below $85B trigger. Real estate and stock markets under pressure. Capital flight accelerating. Currency weakening 30-50%.

Timeline: November 2025 - June 2026 (6-18 months)

Phase 3: Banking Crisis & Recession

PENDING

Banking sector stress peaks. Economic contraction deepens. International intervention likely (IMF). Full crisis materialization.

Expected: May 2026 - November 2026 (12-24 months)

⚠️ Disclaimer: This dashboard is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.